Bears vs. Lions odds, line, spread: Model on 130-91 roll reveals 2021 Thanksgiving Day NFL picks, predictions

Written by on November 25, 2021

The Detroit Lions are eyeing their first win of the season when they take on the injury-riddled Chicago Bears in an NFC North battle on Thanksgiving Day. The Bears (3-7), who will likely be without starting quarterback Justin Fields (ribs) and wide receiver Allen Robinson (hamstring), are looking to snap a five-game losing streak. The Lions (0-9-1) tied the Pittsburgh Steelers on Nov. 14 in their lone non-loss this season. Chicago has won six of the past seven meetings with Detroit.

Kickoff from Detroit is set for 12:30 p.m. ET. Chicago is a three-point favorite in the latest Bears vs. Lions odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is 41.5. Before you make any Lions vs. Bears picks, make sure to check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,300 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Week 12 of the 2021 season on an incredible 130-91 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has simulated Bears vs. Lions 10,000 times and just revealed its NFL expert picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting trends for Bears vs. Lions:

  • Bears vs. Lions spread: Bears -3
  • Bears vs. Lions over-under: 41.5 points
  • Bears vs. Lions money line: Chicago -160, Detroit +140
  • CHI: Bears are 4-1 against the spread against teams with a losing record
  • DET: Under has hit in seven of last eight Lions games 

Why the Bears can cover

Quarterback Justin Fields suffered bruised ribs last Sunday in the loss to the Baltimore Ravens and, as a result, Andy Dalton will get the start. Dalton passed for 201 yards and two touchdowns with zero interceptions for a 107.3 rating last week against the Ravens.

While the Bears will start Dalton, they are set at running back. David Montgomery rushed for 106 yards and two touchdowns in the Week 4 meeting with the Lions. He is looking for his third game in a row against Detroit with 100 or more yards from scrimmage and two or more rushing touchdowns. Montgomery had 87 yards from scrimmage, including 75 yards rushing and a touchdown catch in their last Thanksgiving Day meeting in 2019.

Why the Lions can cover

Despite its record, Detroit features a number of weapons on offense, including tight end T.J. Hockenson. He leads all NFC tight ends in receptions with 54 and ranks second in receiving yards with 499 in 2021. He had six receptions in the last Thanksgiving meeting versus the Bears in 2019 and had six catches for 56 yards and a touchdown in the last home meeting against them. Hockenson has eight or more receptions and 70 or more receiving yards in three of his four home games this season.

Wide receiver Kalif Raymond had two receiving touchdowns in the Week 4 meeting against Chicago and has six or more catches in two of his past three home games. In 10 games this season, Raymond has 30 receptions for 363 yards (12.1 average) and two TDs. He also has six explosive plays of 20 or more yards and has converted 19 first downs.

How to make Bears vs. Lions picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 43 points. It also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see who to back here.

So who wins Lions vs. Bears on Thanksgiving Day? And which side has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Lions vs. Bears spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that returned nearly $7,300 on its NFL picks over the last six seasons, and find out.

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